Dr. Christina Durón

Christina Durón

Date: November 7, 2023

Venue: Zoom

Speaker: Dr. Christina Durón

Affiliation: Natural Science, Seaver College, Pepperdine University

Title: A coupled spatial-network model for epidemiology

Abstract: There is extensive evidence that network structure (e.g., air transport, rivers, or roads) may significantly enhance the spread of epidemics into the surrounding geographical area. We present real-world examples of situations where this was the case (for example, the early spread of HIV in Kinshasa in the 1920s was aided by the colonial-era railroad network). However, models that couple movement on a network with two-dimensional spatial spread have largely not been studied. We present a mathematical system based on the SIR (Susceptible-Infected-Removed) model in which we couple population hubs, travel routes, and a 2D area containing the bulk of the population to examine how an infection spreads through a population. We discuss the results of our model on some case studies and highlight the implications.